An alternative perspective

We have three senior advisors who regularly contribute articles to our quarterly investor reports. These are reproduced below. 

2015

13 November 2015

The Migrants: the Longer-Term Political and Economic Impact for Europe

Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group

Winter looms and migrants from the Middle East and Africa continue to make their way towards Europe. Some are fleeing for their lives, others simply seek a better life and broader horizons for their children. All are making life more difficult for European leaders and institutions struggling to cope with a dizzying array of security and economic challenges. Europe’s governments know the migrant crisis won’t solve itself, but early efforts to coordinate solutions fall far short of what will be needed. The broader implications of this crisis are far-reaching.

13 November 2015

The Long-Run Price of Oil

Professor Dieter Helm, University of Oxford

Once upon a time, not very long ago, it was widely believed that oil prices could only go one way. Many energy commentators, and most European politicians, convinced themselves that supply could never keep up with demand, and hence the future was a path to $200 a barrel.

13 November 2015

The Return of the Luddites: When Technology and Toil Diverge

Dr Bob Swarup, Founder of Camdor Global

“The production of too many useful things results in too many useless people.”

Karl Marx

“In the short term, most things that contribute to productivity growth are very painful.”

Janet Yellen

The recent job numbers for September and October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the US make for confusing and uneasy reading.

14 August 2015

In Praise of the Augean Stables: The Fear of Growth

Dr Bob Swarup, Founder of Camdor Global

Augean stables are not to be cleansed with a spray of rose-water.

Gabriel Setoun, Robert Burns

In conventional theory, economic growth is a strong driver of financial markets.

That is a fallacy. History tells us that the correlation between the economy and asset prices is tenuous at best, often diverging and tending to one only at turning points as good or bad news catch up to sentiment, sparking euphoria or a rout respectively.

14 August 2015

What’s Next for Europe?

Professor Dieter Helm, University of Oxford 

After yet more all-night European summits in the early summer, and another bailout, Greece is still in the Eurozone – just. But at a price. Greece is now effectively in administration. The creditors have taken control. No one really thinks Greece can pay back what it owes, and no one expects it to become a modern market economy any time soon. It is on a life support system, paid for by Germany and other Eurozone countries, and will remain so through many summits and renegotiation crises to come.

14 August 2015

The Future of US Foreign Policy and its Global Economic Implications

Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group

As the 2016 US presidential election race heats up, we will hear more, particularly from Republican candidates, about President Obama’s failure to assert US international leadership. Even Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic Party nominee to replace him, will offer voters traditional ideas about the world’s demand for a more forceful US role in the global order. It is true that only the US can combine military muscle, economic clout and cultural appeal to exert power in every region of today’s world. The US will remain the world’s sole superpower for the foreseeable future. But a quarter of a century after the end of the Cold War, this advantage comes with diminished global influence, the result of changes both inside and outside the US: developments that cannot be blamed on President Obama.

11 March 2015

Party Like it's 1999!

Dr Bob Swarup, Founder of Camdor Global

“ The only point of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”

JK Galbraith

In the latter half of 2014, Wall Street analysts bent over backwards to prove Galbraith’s adage right when it came to the price of crude oil.

11 March 2015

Europe's Economic Prospects

Professor Dieter Helm, University of Oxford

It is not hard to take a pessimistic view of Europe’s prospects. Greece cannot honour its debts. Italy seems incapable of reform. France is paralysed by the politics of feeble gestures. The euro remains on an ECB life support system. The far right threatens the very idea of a unified and integrated EU.

 

11 March 2015

Europe's Rough Road Ahead

Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group

In 2015, Germany will take the next steps towards becoming the dominant power in Europe. In many ways, this is good news because Germany is as sturdy, politically and economically, as any country in the world. It is a country in which the consensus view is that prosperity depends on peace and stability. Bills must be paid.

11 March 2015

Top Global Risks for 2015: Which Political Threats are Likely to be an Issue This Year?

Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group

In 2015, geopolitical risk is on the rise. US relations with Russia are now completely broken. Islamic extremism is reverberating well beyond the Middle East. Conflict among the world’s great powers is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War.