An alternative perspective

We have three senior advisors who regularly contribute articles to our quarterly investor reports. These are reproduced below. 

2008

01 November 2008

Post-Election US Foreign Policy: an Outlook for the Obama Administration

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP As Barack Obama sets up shop in the White House, observers in America and around the world await signs of a substantial strategic shift in US foreign policy.

01 November 2008

The Return of the State

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD The credit crunch – and the recession – have provided a sharp reminder that, contrary to Gordon Brown’s assertion, ‘boom-and-bust’ has not been abolished. The business cycle is back with a vengeance.

01 August 2008

The Geopolitics of Oil

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP The sharp spike in global oil prices over the past six years has shifted the balance of power in international politics. At the same time, the expanding political and market influence now enjoyed by the governments of many emerging market states has helped fuel a further rise in energy prices.

01 August 2008

From Financial Markets to the Real Economy – Now the Downturn Starts to Bite

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD One year on from the breaking of the credit crisis, any lingering naivety about the scale of the impacts on the global economy has long since dissipated.

01 May 2008

Agflation: the Political Risk Implications of Rising Global Food Prices

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP “We consider that the recent dramatic escalation in food prices worldwide has evolved into an unprecedented challenge of global proportions that has become a crisis for the world’s most vulnerable, including the urban poor.”

01 May 2008

Getting Real about the Credit Crunch: De-leveraging the State, Companies and Consumer Balance Sheets

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD The credit crunch has now been in full swing for nearly a year. At each stage, the end has been confidently predicted and politicians and policy-makers have forecast at worst a growth pause before a return to the good times of the last two decades.

01 February 2008

Emerging Risks from Protectionism in the United States

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP For the first time in my career as a political scientist, the United States has become the world’s primary source of political risk.

01 February 2008

Five Other Top Global Risks for 2008

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP The US and Israeli governments find themselves in a tough spot over Iran. The recently released US National Intelligence Estimate, which asserted with “moderate confidence” that Iran suspended its nuclear weapons programme in 2003, has undermined international support for both sanctions on Iran and air strikes on its nuclear facilities.

01 February 2008

After the Credit Crunch – the Real Economic Effects

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD It started quietly in the US housing market. Over-optimistic bankers had lent to people who could not really afford to borrow. Financial authorities and politicians were quick to point out that this was a little local difficulty.