An alternative perspective

We have three senior advisors who regularly contribute articles to our quarterly investor reports. These are reproduced below. 

2007

01 November 2007

Growing risk in Turkey

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP Just as Turkey seemed to be emerging from a winter of political discontent, a pair of international provocations has drawn its government into new conflicts.

01 November 2007

It’s not over yet: The implications of the credit crunch

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD 2007 will go down in economic history as a rollercoaster – it’s not often that we see a global credit crunch which requires over $0.5 trillion to stabilise, and a run on a major London bank. The former occurs roughly every quarter of a century, the latter on a century scale – though there were no major UK bank runs in the entire twentieth century.

01 August 2007

The Fast-Deteriorating US-Chinese Relationship, its Causes and Broader Implications

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP Most US and Chinese policymakers well understand that their two countries’ economies have become increasingly interdependent.

01 August 2007

Real Interest Rates and the Return to Normalcy

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD What drives markets in the end are fundamentals, and few variables are as important as the real interest rate – the return after inflation on relatively risk-less assets.

01 May 2007

Emerging markets: some will emerge, others may not

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP There are plenty of deceptively simplistic words and phrases in the lexicon of international politics. The term “leftist”, applied to both Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez and Brazil’s President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, obscures vitally important differences in the two men’s political philosophies and governing styles.

01 May 2007

Europe takes the lead on climate change

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD In March this year, the European Council of Ministers took an historic step forward in tackling the great challenge of our times – climate change.

01 February 2007

America’s Protectionist Politics

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP In the United States, heightened anxiety over national security, job losses in the manufacturing sector, and the polarization of domestic politics have intensified debates over policy on foreign investment in US assets, trade, and illegal immigration.

01 February 2007

Europe’s Energy Crunch

PROF. DIETER HELM, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD The energy sector has a habit of creating surprises. Back in the 1980s and 1990s, when oil prices touched $10 a barrel and there was excess capacity in most European countries, nobody worried much about security of supply, and bothered even less about climate change.

01 February 2007

Top 7 Global Risks for 2007

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP Near-certain escalation of the international conflict over Iran’s nuclear programme and American and Sunni Arab anxiety over Iran’s growing influence in Iraq and the broader Middle East make Iran the most significant global political risk for 2007.