An alternative perspective

We have three senior advisors who regularly contribute articles to our quarterly investor reports. These are reproduced below. 

2016

25 November 2016

Brexit and a Poorer Britain

Professor Dieter Helm, University of Oxford 

It has gradually dawned on Britain’s political leaders that a central claim of the Leave campaign in the 2016 UK referendum on EU membership was wrong. It was asserted repeatedly that Britain could have access to, and even participation in, the Single Market and limit the free movement of people. Britain could, as Boris Johnson put it, have its cake and eat it too.

25 November 2016

The Globalisation Backlash

Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group

Globalisation has become a hotly debated subject inrecent years. No longer widely accepted either as a forcefor good or an inevitability, the digital-age movement ofpeople, money, ideas, information, goods and serviceshas become a lightning-rod political issue in dozens ofcountries around the world. 

25 November 2016

Left, Right, In, Out? The New Global Dilemma

Dr Bob Swarup, Founder of Camdor Global

“Right wing (definition): As with the left wing, half the propulsive force of a flightless bird.” Richard Summerbell

15 August 2016

Bringing on the Robots

Professor Dieter Helm, University of Oxford 

Whatever the short-term turbulence, what driveseconomic growth is technology and the good news isthat technical change is coming fast and furious. Thedebts piled up by governments and banks will cast a longshadow on the economy, and bad economic policies havemade matters worse. But even the Great Depression ofthe 1930s was ultimately washed away in a sea of newtechnologies. Technology made the twentieth century, and it is doing so again in the twenty-first.

15 August 2016

The World Post-Brexit

Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group

The initial shock following the Brexit vote hasworn off and investors now appear to recognisethat we’re in for an extended period of tensenegotiations. Around the world, governmentsand market players are weighing up the potentialdamage. The extent of that fallout will dependon decisions that are yet to be made.

15 August 2016

Deglobalisation 2.0

Dr Bob Swarup, Founder of Camdor Global

The world is getting smaller. That has been the unbidden meme of at least the last half century. Since the end of the Second World War, the world has become more interconnected. The mushrooming and pervasive influences of multilateral organisations such as the United Nations and World Bank...

16 May 2016

Valuing Utilities and Infrastructure

Professor Dieter Helm, University of Oxford 

Of all the asset classes that have survived and prospered after the financial crash back in 2007-2008 and the economic recession that followed, the utilities stand out. Share prices for the few remaining quoted companies have been impervious to the tribulations of the rest of the economy, and the yields in Britain have been remarkably stable at around four to five per cent.

Why?

16 May 2016

Geopolitical Tensions in Asia

Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group

The South China Sea has seen provocation, sometimes confrontation, for hundreds of years. Recent tensions have provoked anxiety around the world, because this is now the main arena in which warships of the world’s sole superpower and its emerging rival track one another’s moves every hour.

16 May 2016

Brexit or EUxit? A Referendum on Europe

Dr Bob Swarup, Founder of Camdor Global

Ever since David Cameron fired the starting gun on the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union on 20 February, there has been an unprecedented amount of analysis as to the implications for Britain should it choose to leave – a scenario pithily referred to as Brexit. The battle lines are drawn and emotions are high, particularly as the vote looks closer than anticipated.