An Alternate Perspective
May 2008
Agflation: the Political Risk Implications of Rising Global Food Prices
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
Soaring prices for wheat, rice, corn and soybeans have already generated acute food shortages and political turmoil in several countries. Beyond the obvious stakes for the hundreds of thousands who may starve and the 100 million more who risk sliding deeper into poverty across the developing world, the World Bank warns that food shortages place as many as 33 countries at risk of civil unrest.
May 2008
Getting Real about the Credit Crunch: De-leveraging the State, Companies and Consumer Balance Sheets
Prof. Dieter Helm, University of Oxford
The credit crunch has now been in full swing for nearly a year. At each stage, the end has been confidently predicted and politicians and policy-makers have forecast at worst a growth pause before a return to the good times of the last two decades. ... The optimists have had to downgrade their expectations at each twist of the credit screw: now recession is widely expected in the US, the UK looks very exposed and Europe is beginning to feel the effects of its rising (and increasingly reserve) currency
February 2008
Emerging Risks from Protectionism in the United States
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
There is a significant election-year risk in 2008 that America will scale back its engagement with the world; construct new barriers to trade, immigration and foreign investment; and renounce its leadership on a range of international issues from trade liberalisation to international security.
February 2008
Five Other Top Global Risks for 2008
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
Which other political risks are likely to be an issue this year?
February 2008
After the Credit Crunch – the Real Economic Effects
Prof. Dieter Helm, University of Oxford
It started quietly in the US housing market. Over-optimistic bankers had lent to people who could not really afford to borrow. Financial authorities and politicians were quick to point out that this was a little local difficulty. But it wasn’t: it turned out that the mortgages had a pyramid of sub-prime debt on top of them. ... Now it is finally widely acknowledged that we have the real prospect of recession.
November 2007
Growing risk in Turkey
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
Just as Turkey seemed to be emerging from a winter of political discontent, a pair of international provocations has drawn its government into new conflicts ... However, I was surprised to discover during a recent visit to Istanbul that the real emerging risks in Turkey have more to do with domestic politics than with all this foreign-policy turmoil. These risks are not going away.
November 2007
It’s not over yet: The implications of the credit crunch
Prof. Dieter Helm, University Of Oxford
2007 will go down in economic history as a rollercoaster – it’s not often that we see a global credit crunch which requires over $0.5 trillion to stabilise, and a run on a major London bank ... What is at least as surprising is that many in the financial markets appear to believe that these are events that can happen without wider economic consequences.
August 2007
The Fast-Deteriorating US-Chinese Relationship, its Causes and Broader Implications
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
Most US and Chinese policymakers well understand that their two countries’ economies have become increasingly interdependent. That's why each side has committed considerable domestic political capital to a “Strategic Economic Dialogue”...
August 2007
Real Interest Rates and the Return to Normalcy
Prof. Dieter Helm, University of Oxford
What drives markets in the end are fundamentals, and few variables are as important as the real interest rate... For the first half of this decade, real rates have been close to zero... Now that era appears to be coming to an end - with major implications for financial markets...
May 2007
Emerging markets: some will emerge, others may not
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
“Emerging market” as it is commonly used conceals crucial differences in how the governments of these states govern - and what these differences mean for the development of their economies.
May 2007
Europe takes the lead on climate change
Prof. Dieter Helm, University of Oxford
In March this year, the European Council of Ministers took an historic step forward in tackling the great challenge of our times – climate change. The Council agreed a unilateral target for a 20% reduction in emissions by 2020 from the 1990 level.
February 2007
America’s Protectionist Politics
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
In the United States, heightened anxiety over national security, job losses in the manufacturing sector, and the polarisation of domestic politics have intensified debates over policy on foreign investment in US assets, trade, and illegal immigration.
February 2007
Europe’s Energy Crunch
Prof. Dieter Helm, University of Oxford
Europe is now facing a massive investment requirement to replace its ageing energy assets.
February 2007
Top 7 Global Risks for 2007
Ian Bremmer, President, Eurasia Group
Which political risks are likely to be an issue this year?
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